Big four banks tip an RBA cash-rate hike on 29 September

All four big banks now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60% on Tuesday 29 September 2026, which would be the fourth hike this year (Canstar 21 Sep 2026; MPA 21 Sep 2026; RBA). Inflation is easing but still above target, the Governor says some upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising, and house prices have fallen for five straight months (ABS 26 Aug 2026; RBA 18 Sep 2026; Cotality 1 Sep 2026).

What just changed?

By Monday 21 September, all four had moved to September. NAB was already there. Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis brought Westpac's call forward to a September hike, announced on 21 September, and CBA and ANZ followed the same day (Westpac 21 Sep 2026; Canstar 21 Sep 2026; MPA 21 Sep 2026).

So the consensus is a 25 basis point hike, taking the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday 29 September. That's what the bank economists think. It's not what the RBA has said it will do.

How did we get to 4.35%?

Quick recap of the year, from the RBA's cash rate table (dates are when each decision took effect, the day after it was announced):

• 4 February: up 25bp to 3.85%
• 18 March: up 25bp to 4.10%
• 6 May: up 25bp to 4.35%
• 17 June and 12 August: held at 4.35%

Three hikes, two holds. A September move would make it four hikes in 2026 (MPA 21 Sep 2026).

CBA's Head of Australian Economics, Belinda Allen, says a move to 4.60% "will see those with a mortgage facing a higher mortgage rate than seen since 2011", with the cash rate "25bp above the peak seen ahead of the 2025 cutting cycle" (MPA 21 Sep 2026).

Do the banks agree on what happens after September?

Not quite. This is where it gets interesting.

ANZ economists Adam Boyton and Jack Chambers have a second hike in November, taking the rate to 4.85%. That would be the highest since 2008 (MPA 21 Sep 2026; Broker Daily 22 Sep 2026).

ANZ is the only major bank to officially put a second hike in its forecast. Westpac and NAB say there's a risk of another hike in November but haven't added it to their official forecasts (Canstar 21 Sep 2026). CBA's Allen says that "at 4.6% monetary policy is restrictive" (MPA 21 Sep 2026).

Same data, different reads on how much is enough. That's normal. Economists forecast; they don't know.

What did the RBA actually say?

Governor Michele Bullock appeared before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics on 18 September. The line that got the most attention, from her opening statement: "although growth in the Australian economy is slowing, some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising" (RBA 18 Sep 2026).

Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser offered a personal view that Australian rates are now closer to sensible long-term global real rates. He also raised a question: have borrowers adjusted? (ABC News 18 Sep 2026).

Neither of those is a promise to hike. But together they read as a central bank that isn't relaxed about inflation.

What are markets pricing?

Two different sources, two slightly different numbers. Worth keeping them separate.

LSEG pricing on 18 September had roughly a 95% chance of a September hike and about 37% for a further move in November (ABC News 18 Sep 2026).

ASX pricing reported on 22 September put the chance of a move to 4.60% at around 82% (Broker Daily 22 Sep 2026).

Both point the same way. The gap between them is a reminder that these figures shift daily and depend on how each provider calculates them.

Why is inflation the sticking point?

The ABS monthly CPI, released 26 August 2026, showed headline inflation at 3.5% in the year to July, down from 3.8% in June. The trimmed mean, which strips out the most extreme price moves and is a measure of underlying inflation the RBA watches closely, was 3.6% (ABS 26 Aug 2026).

That's heading in the right direction. But the RBA targets 2 to 3 per cent, and 3.6% underlying isn't there yet.

Where's the pressure coming from? Housing was up 5.0% over the year, with new dwelling prices up 5.7%, rents up 3.6% and electricity up 6.1%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.2% (ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026).

One thing worth clarifying: the CPI excludes mortgage interest charges (ABS FAQ on measuring housing in the CPI). So the 5.0% Housing figure isn't measuring what borrowers pay the bank. The main contributors were new dwelling prices, rents and electricity.

What's happening to house prices?

Falling, and the falls are broadening.

Cotality's Home Value Index dropped 0.9% nationally in August 2026, the fifth monthly decline in a row. Values are now 3.6% below the March peak, and 93% of capital-city suburbs recorded a fall in values over winter (Cotality 1 Sep 2026).

At the parliamentary hearing, RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones put the Sydney and Melbourne declines at around 5 to 6 per cent. Bullock added some perspective: prices are still roughly 50 per cent higher than they were in early 2020 (ABC News 18 Sep 2026).

So it's a correction from a high base, not a collapse. Whether a fourth hike deepens it is one of the questions a lot of investors are asking.

What does a 25bp hike mean for a mortgage?

Canstar calculated on 21 September 2026 that a 0.25 percentage point hike in September would add $91 to the monthly repayments of a borrower who had a $600,000 loan at the start of the 2026 hikes, with 25 years remaining (Canstar 21 Sep 2026).

That's illustrative only. Your actual change depends on your lender, your loan size, your remaining term and whether your bank passes the move on in full. It's a useful yardstick, not a bill.

How should you think about it?

We're not going to tell you what to do with your money. That's not our lane.

What we'd say is this. Rate cycles are the backdrop for almost everything in Australian investing: bank margins, property valuations, bond yields, the Aussie dollar, consumer stocks. Understanding how the RBA reads inflation data, and how markets price the outcomes, is a core skill.

The one point worth underlining: even at "95%", a hike isn't locked in. That's why the August jobs numbers, due on Thursday 24 September, matter.

What to watch

• Thursday 24 September 2026, 11:30am AEST: ABS Labour Force, August data (ABS release calendar)
• Tuesday 29 September 2026, 2:30pm AEST: RBA cash rate decision; Governor's media conference 3:30pm (RBA)
• Wednesday 30 September 2026, 11:30am AEST: ABS August CPI release (ABS release calendar)

Sources

1. Reserve Bank of Australia — Cash Rate Target (22 Sep 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/
2. Reserve Bank of Australia — Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Michele Bullock (18 Sep 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-gov-2026-09-18.html
3. Reserve Bank of Australia — 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting dates — https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
4. Reserve Bank of Australia — Media Conference, Monetary Policy Decision — https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/media-conferences/
5. Australian Bureau of Statistics — CPI rose 3.5% in the year to July 2026 (26 Aug 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-35-year-july-2026
6. Australian Bureau of Statistics — Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026 (26 Aug 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release
7. Australian Bureau of Statistics — FAQs about the measurement of housing in the CPI and Selected Living Cost Indexes — https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/frequently-asked-questions-faqs-about-measurement-housing-consumer-price-index-cpi-and-selected-living-cost-indexes-slcis
8. Australian Bureau of Statistics — Release calendar, September 2026 — https://www.abs.gov.au/release-calendar/future-releases/202609
9. Cotality — Housing downturn spreads as 93% of capital city suburbs record winter value falls (1 Sep 2026) — https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/housing-downturn-spreads-as-93-of-capital-city-suburbs-record-winter-value-falls
10. Westpac — Westpac brings forward rate hike call to September (21 Sep 2026) — https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2026/09/westpac-brings-forward-rate-hike-call-to-september/
11. Canstar — All four big banks expect RBA hike at next meeting (21 Sep 2026) — https://www.canstar.com.au/news/and-then-there-were-4-anz-now-expects-rba-hike-next-week/
12. Mortgage Professional Australia — CBA, ANZ join Westpac, NAB in tipping RBA hike (21 Sep 2026) — https://www.mpamag.com/au/news/general/cba-anz-join-westpac-nab-in-tipping-rba-hike/590401
13. Broker Daily — Banks recast rate hike forecasts to be harder and faster (22 Sep 2026) — https://www.brokerdaily.au/economy/22039-banks-recast-rate-hike-forecasts-to-be-harder-and-faster
14. ABC News — RBA Governor talks interest rates at parliamentary hearing (18 Sep 2026) — https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-18/rba-governor-talks-interest-rates-at-parliamentary-hearing/107167676