# Investing Platform — Blog (full text) > Full plain-text of every published post on https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog. > General information only — not personal financial advice. See each post for its full disclaimer. # Stripe Is Still Private: What Australian Wholesale Investors Should Know URL: https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog/stripe-still-private-australian-wholesale-investors Author: Investing Platform Published: 2026-10-22 As at 22 October 2026, Stripe is a private company: it does not appear in the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) directory of listed companies (ASX company directory, accessed 22 Oct 2026), the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) record for Stripe, Inc. lists no ticker and no stock exchange (SEC EDGAR submissions record, accessed 22 Oct 2026), and its SEC filings are Form D notices of exempt offerings and one Form D/A amendment (SEC EDGAR search results, accessed 22 Oct 2026). A February 2026 tender offer for current and former Stripe employees valued Stripe at $159B in US dollars (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). In Australia, investors with a qualified accountant's certificate certifying a prescribed net asset or gross income level can buy financial products without a regulated disclosure document such as a prospectus or Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) (Moneysmart, accessed 22 Oct 2026). ## Is Stripe listed on the ASX or a US stock exchange? No, not as at 22 October 2026 (ASX company directory, accessed 22 Oct 2026; SEC EDGAR submissions record, accessed 22 Oct 2026). In January 2026, Bloomberg News reported that Stripe has conducted several tender offers to give employees and investors a chance to cash in on their shares without a public listing (Bloomberg News via Irish Examiner 22 Jan 2026). The SEC's EDGAR filing list for "Stripe, Inc." (CIK 0001691342) shows Form D "Notice of Exempt Offering of Securities" filings and one Form D/A amendment (SEC EDGAR search results, accessed 22 Oct 2026). The most recent Form D on the SEC's EDGAR filing list for Stripe, Inc. was filed on 12 April 2024 (SEC EDGAR search results, accessed 22 Oct 2026). ## What has Stripe's president said about going public? In January 2026, in a Bloomberg News interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, John Collison, Stripe's co-founder and president, said Stripe did not have imminent plans for a public listing and was still not in any rush (Bloomberg News via Irish Examiner 22 Jan 2026). CNBC reported on 24 February 2026 that Collison, in an interview with CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, said an initial public offering (IPO) would ultimately distract from Stripe's other goals (CNBC 24 Feb 2026). CNBC quoted Collison as saying: "For us right now, an IPO would be a solution in search of a problem" (CNBC 24 Feb 2026). Collison added that Stripe had a self-funding business that was growing very well, with lots of new products the company wanted to create, so it did not need the extra capital at that time (CNBC 24 Feb 2026). Collison also said going public was not one of the company's top five, ten or twenty priorities (CNBC 24 Feb 2026). ## What valuations has Stripe announced in private deals since 2021? The valuations below come from Stripe's own announcements from 2021 onwards and are stated in US dollars (Stripe 14 Mar 2021; Stripe 15 Mar 2023; Stripe 28 Feb 2024; Stripe 27 Feb 2025; Stripe 24 Feb 2026). Valuations are historical events, not an offer price. | Date | Event | Valuation (US$) | Source | |---|---|---|---| | 14 Mar 2021 | Funding round of $600 million | $95B | Stripe 14 Mar 2021 | | 15 Mar 2023 | Series I fundraise of more than $6.5 billion | $50B | Stripe 15 Mar 2023 | | 28 Feb 2024 | Tender offer for current and former employees | $65B | Stripe 28 Feb 2024 | | 27 Feb 2025 | Tender offer for current and former employees | $91.5B | Stripe 27 Feb 2025 | | 24 Feb 2026 | Tender offer for current and former employees | $159B | Stripe 24 Feb 2026 | On 14 March 2021, Stripe announced it had raised a $600 million (€500 million) funding round at a $95B (€80B) valuation (Stripe 14 Mar 2021). On 15 March 2023, Stripe announced it had signed agreements for a Series I fundraise of more than $6.5 billion (€6.15 billion) at a $50B (€47B) valuation (Stripe 15 Mar 2023). Stripe said primary investors in the Series I fundraise included existing shareholders Andreessen Horowitz, Baillie Gifford, Founders Fund, General Catalyst, MSD Partners and Thrive Capital, and new investors including GIC, Goldman Sachs Asset and Wealth Management, and Temasek (Stripe 15 Mar 2023). The Series I money was earmarked to provide liquidity to current and former employees and to address employee withholding tax obligations related to equity awards (Stripe 15 Mar 2023). In its 15 March 2023 announcement, Stripe said it did not need the Series I capital to run its business (Stripe 15 Mar 2023). On 28 February 2024, Stripe announced it had signed agreements with investors for a tender offer at a $65B (€60B) valuation (Stripe 28 Feb 2024). Stripe said the majority of the funds for the tender offer were being provided by investors, and that it would also use a portion of its own capital to repurchase shares to offset dilution from its employee equity compensation programs (Stripe 28 Feb 2024). On 27 February 2025, Stripe announced it had signed agreements with investors for a tender offer at a $91.5B (€87.3B) valuation, and said it would also repurchase shares itself (Stripe 27 Feb 2025). On 24 February 2026, Stripe announced it had signed agreements with investors for a further tender offer at a $159B (€135B) valuation (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). Stripe said the majority of the funds for the tender offer were being provided by investors including Thrive Capital, Coatue, a16z and others, and that it would also use a portion of its own capital to repurchase shares (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). ## How did Stripe describe its tender offers? Stripe described its February 2024, February 2025 and February 2026 tender offers as providing liquidity to current and former Stripe employees (Stripe 28 Feb 2024; Stripe 27 Feb 2025; Stripe 24 Feb 2026). In each tender offer, Stripe said it had signed agreements with investors, and that it would also repurchase shares (Stripe 28 Feb 2024; Stripe 27 Feb 2025; Stripe 24 Feb 2026). CNBC reported that current and former employees were eligible to sell shares in the February 2026 tender offer (CNBC 24 Feb 2026). ## How big is Stripe's business? Stripe describes itself as a technology company that builds economic infrastructure for the internet, with dual headquarters in San Francisco and Dublin (Stripe, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Stripe's stated mission is to increase the GDP of the internet (Stripe, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Stripe lists Patrick Collison as Co-founder and CEO and John Collison as Co-founder and President (Stripe, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Stripe supports 135+ currencies and payment methods and is available to businesses in 50+ countries (Stripe, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Businesses on Stripe generated $1.4 trillion in total payment volume in 2024, up 38% from the prior year (Stripe 27 Feb 2025). In 2025, businesses running on Stripe generated $1.9 trillion in total volume, up 34% from 2024, which Stripe says is equivalent to roughly 1.6% of global GDP (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). In their 2025 annual letter, the Collisons wrote that Stripe's programmable financial services power more than 5 million businesses directly or via platforms (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). The Collisons also wrote that Stripe remained robustly profitable (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). In its 24 February 2026 announcement, Stripe said its Revenue suite, which includes Stripe Billing, Invoicing, Tax and more, was on track to hit an annual run rate of $1 billion in 2026 (Stripe 24 Feb 2026). ## Who counts as a wholesale client in Australia? The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) says that under the Corporations Act, a person who holds a current certificate from a qualified accountant, certifying a prescribed net asset or gross income level, is a 'sophisticated investor' for Chapter 6D when offered debt or shares, or a 'wholesale client' for Chapter 7 when offered a financial product other than insurance, superannuation or a retirement savings account product or service, where the financial product is not used in connection with a business (ASIC certificates page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). To be eligible for a qualified accountant's certificate, a person must have a gross income of $250,000 or more per annum in each of the previous two years, or net assets of at least $2.5 million (ASIC certificates page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). The gross income and net asset thresholds sit in reg 6D.2.03 and reg 7.1.28 (ASIC certificates page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Under Chapters 6D and 7, qualified accountants' certificates are valid for up to two years after they were issued (ASIC certificates page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Moneysmart explains that the certificate gives an exemption under the Corporations Act 2001, which means the person can buy financial products without a regulated disclosure document such as a prospectus or product disclosure statement (Moneysmart, accessed 22 Oct 2026). ASIC's May 2024 submission to a parliamentary inquiry described a product value test, under which a person is a wholesale client if the price of the financial product, or the value of the financial product to which a financial service relates, is AUD500,000 or more (ASIC May 2024). ASIC's May 2024 submission also described a sophisticated investor test under s761GA, which focuses on the investor's experience in relation to financial products or financial services generally (ASIC May 2024). ## What is a wholesale managed investment scheme? ASIC's submission says additional protections apply under Chapter 5C when a managed investment scheme, also known as a managed fund, has retail clients as members, and that these protections do not apply to schemes where the members are wholesale clients, referred to generally as 'wholesale schemes' (ASIC May 2024). ASIC says a managed investment scheme must generally be registered if it has more than 20 members or is promoted by a person in the business of promoting managed investment schemes, under s601ED (ASIC scheme registration page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Some managed investment schemes may be exempt from registration, for example where all of the interests in the scheme are issued to wholesale clients only, under s601ED(2) (ASIC scheme registration page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). ASIC refers to managed investment schemes that are not registered as unregistered schemes (ASIC scheme registration page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). Operators of unregistered schemes must generally hold an Australian financial services (AFS) licence to issue, vary and dispose of interests in the scheme to wholesale investors (ASIC scheme registration page, accessed 22 Oct 2026). ## What protections do wholesale clients give up? ASIC told the parliamentary inquiry that retail clients have the benefit of important statutory protections in Chapter 7 of the Corporations Act (ASIC May 2024). The protections ASIC listed include the design and distribution obligations, ASIC's product intervention powers and access to external dispute resolution (ASIC May 2024). ASIC's submission said that, prior to the sale or issue of a financial product, retail clients are required to receive financial product information disclosure, including detailed information about fees and costs, in a Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) (ASIC May 2024). ASIC's May 2024 submission stated that wholesale clients do not have the benefit of these significant additional investor protections, which it had listed for retail clients (ASIC May 2024). ## Sources 1. Stripe — Stripe publishes 2025 annual letter and announces tender offer to provide liquidity to current and former employees (24 Feb 2026) — https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-2025-update 2. Stripe — Stripe announces tender offer to provide liquidity to current and former employees (27 Feb 2025) — https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/employee-liquidity-feb-2025 3. Stripe — Stripe announces tender offer to provide employee liquidity (28 Feb 2024) — https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/employee-liquidity-feb-2024 4. Stripe — Stripe announces new round of funding and plan to provide employee liquidity (15 Mar 2023) — https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-series-i-employee-liquidity 5. Stripe — Stripe has raised a new round of funding to accelerate momentum in Europe and reinforce enterprise leadership (14 Mar 2021) — https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/stripe-series-h 6. Stripe — Stripe Newsroom | Information and assets (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://stripe.com/newsroom/information 7. CNBC — Stripe valued at $159 billion after tender offer for employees, shareholders (24 Feb 2026) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/24/stripe-value-stock-sale-tender-offer.html 8. Irish Examiner (Bloomberg) — Payment firm Stripe in no rush to go public, Collison says (22 Jan 2026) — https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/companies/arid-41780486.html 9. ASX — Company directory (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://www.asx.com.au/markets/trade-our-cash-market/directory 10. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — EDGAR submissions record: Stripe, Inc. (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://data.sec.gov/submissions/CIK0001691342.json 11. U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — EDGAR Search Results: Stripe, Inc. (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001691342&type=&dateb=&owner=include&count=40 12. ASIC — Certificates issued by a qualified accountant (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://www.asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/financial-services/financial-product-disclosure/certificates-issued-by-a-qualified-accountant 13. Moneysmart — sophisticated investor (glossary definition) (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://moneysmart.gov.au/glossary/sophisticated-investor 14. ASIC — Parliamentary Joint Committee on Corporations and Financial Services inquiry into the wholesale investor and wholesale client tests: Submission by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (May 2024) — https://download.asic.gov.au/media/hxrizoei/202405-submission-no-62-wholesale-investor-and-wholesale-client-tests.pdf 15. ASIC — Register a managed investment scheme (accessed 22 Oct 2026) — https://www.asic.gov.au/for-finance-professionals/fund-operators/register-a-managed-investment-scheme ## Disclaimer Investing Platform is an aggregator service only. We do not hold client funds, securities, or investments. We do not provide personal financial advice. No guarantees are made regarding future performance or returns. This is general information only and does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs — seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice. Eligibility & T&Cs apply. --- # Home Values Fall for a Sixth Straight Month as the RBA Assesses Mortgage Buffers URL: https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog/home-values-fall-sixth-month-rba-financial-stability-review Author: Investing Platform Published: 2026-10-16 Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 1.1% in September 2026, the sixth straight month of falling values, taking the cumulative decline since the March 2026 peak to 5.2% nationally (Cotality Home Value Index 1 Oct 2026). The Reserve Bank of Australia released its October 2026 Financial Stability Review on 1 October 2026, and the RBA assesses that most Australian households with mortgages remain well placed to manage more difficult conditions, even if housing prices were to fall sharply, although there are pockets of stress (RBA media release 1 Oct 2026). ## What did Cotality's Home Value Index show for September? Cotality's Home Value Index fell 1.1% in September, marking the sixth straight month of falling values (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Every capital city except Darwin recorded a fall in home values over the month, and 71% of the regional SA3 sub-markets recorded a decline in values over the month (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Darwin (0.4%) was the only capital city to avoid a fall over the month (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Tim Lawless, Cotality's research director, said: "97% of capital city suburbs were down in value over the three months to end of September, highlighting the broad-based scope of this negative housing cycle" (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Cotality says the housing downturn reflects a combination of affordability constraints, higher interest rates, elevated living costs, and weaker consumer sentiment, all of which have reduced purchasing capacity and dampened buyer demand (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). ## How did the capital cities move? Brisbane recorded the sharpest monthly decline among the capitals in September, with values down 1.5%, edging past Sydney's 1.4% fall (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Cotality says Melbourne showed a milder rate of decline in September, at -0.7%, than each of the mid-sized capitals, where values were down more than 1% (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Cotality's 1 October 2026 release put Sydney values 8.6% below their February 2026 peak, a decline Cotality says is marginally deeper than the equivalent stage of the 2022-23 downturn (Cotality 1 Oct 2026; Cotality Home Value Index 1 Oct 2026). Cotality says Melbourne values are 7.2% below their cyclical high in November 2025 and 7.5% below the record high from March 2022 (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). On an annual basis, Cotality reports the national outcome has been flat (0.0% change in values), but some markets are still showing strong annual gains, reflecting the period of growth through 2024 and early 2026 (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Perth (10.1%) and Darwin (11.9%) have recorded the highest annual gains among the capitals, while Sydney (-7.0%) and Melbourne (-6.2%) are well into negative annual change and Canberra home values are also lower over the year, down 1.6% (Cotality 1 Oct 2026; Cotality Home Value Index 1 Oct 2026). Regional dwelling values are up 5.6% annually compared with a 1.8% annual decline across the combined capitals (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). ## What is happening to sales and listings? In its 1 October 2026 release, Cotality estimates that the number of home sales over the past three months was tracking 19.1% lower than a year earlier nationally and 13.3% below the previous five-year average (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Cotality says the volume of home sales relative to a year earlier was down most sharply in Brisbane (-27.2%), with Sydney (-26.5%) and Perth (-24.2%) also recording an annual decline in sales of more than 20% (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). "The sharp drop in sales has implications for the broader economy, with lower sales likely to hit some retail segments as well as stamp duty revenues for state governments," Mr Lawless said (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). In the same release, Cotality reported that across the combined capitals the flow of new listings added to the market was 9.2% lower than a year earlier, but total inventory was tracking 23.1% higher (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). "Despite fewer new listings entering the market, inventory levels have risen sharply because the rate of sale has fallen even faster. Capital city homes are now taking a median of 39 days to sell compared with 23 days a year ago, resulting in an accumulation of advertised supply," Mr Lawless said (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Mr Lawless also said: "The lift in available stock is improving choice for buyers, but ironically, many prospective buyers don’t have the confidence or financial capacity to buy at the moment" (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). ## What does the RBA's Financial Stability Review say about mortgage holders? The Review's chapter on the resilience of Australian households and businesses says household and business borrowers continue to display a high level of resilience overall, and loan arrears remain low, despite financial pressures picking up in 2026 in response to higher inflation and interest rates (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says inflation has been elevated in 2026 and that, as a result, the Monetary Policy Board has increased the cash rate by 100 basis points to help return inflation to target, and that while some households continue to experience hardship, the estimated share of mortgagors in severe financial stress or in arrears has, so far, remained low, supported by the strong labour market and mortgagors' savings and equity buffers (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA's cash rate table shows four increases of 25 basis points in 2026, effective 4 February, 18 March, 6 May and 30 September, taking the cash rate target from 3.60 per cent to 4.60 per cent (RBA cash rate table, accessed 16 Oct 2026). At its meeting on 29 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent (RBA 29 Sep 2026). The RBA says the estimated share of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers experiencing a cash flow shortfall – where income is not sufficient to cover scheduled mortgage repayments and essential expenses – increased a little over the first half of 2026, but remains relatively low at around 2 per cent (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says lower-income borrowers are more likely to be in this group and that, in addition to cutting back their spending to mostly essential items and trading down in quality for some goods and services, these households have had to make other difficult adjustments to continue servicing their mortgages, such as selling assets and working additional hours (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says, however, that most borrowers in a cash flow shortfall are estimated to have savings that would enable them to cover their cash flow shortfall for at least six months, assuming they adjusted their consumption down to essential levels (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The October 2026 Review says the share of housing loans more than three months behind on their repayments has increased a little over the year to date but remains around pre-pandemic levels (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says most mortgagors hold large savings buffers in offset and redraw accounts, with the median borrower able to cover over a year of scheduled mortgage payments at current interest rates from these buffers, a stronger position than before the pandemic (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). Based on the economic outlook presented in the August Statement on Monetary Policy, the RBA projects the estimated share of variable-rate owner-occupier borrowers experiencing a cash flow shortfall to remain around its current level of a little under 2 per cent for some time (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). ## What does the RBA say about housing equity as prices fall? The RBA says housing prices have declined in recent months as housing market sentiment has weakened, reflecting the somewhat restrictive stance of monetary policy and changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax discount policies (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA also says recent tax changes affecting housing, as well as the higher level of the cash rate, have contributed to lower demand for housing credit in recent months and a decline in housing prices following a number of years of strong housing price growth (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says that, despite this, most household balance sheets remain strong, with less than 1 per cent of borrowers estimated to owe more on their loan than the value of their property (negative equity) (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says recent buyers and those who took out higher loan-to-value ratio (LVR) loans are more likely to be in negative equity, including first home buyers participating in the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme; however, it says the potential risks to financial stability from these borrowers are mitigated by the structure of the scheme and the typical low-risk characteristics of most first home buyers (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says information from liaison with banks suggests hardship or arrears for participants in the Australian Government 5% Deposit Scheme remain contained, and notes that the arrears rates of recently originated loans may understate their eventual performance because these loans have had less time to experience adverse income or expenditure shocks and transition into arrears (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says that while downside risks to housing prices remain, its Securitisation System data suggest that even in a scenario involving a large uniform fall in housing prices of 20 per cent from current levels, only around 5 per cent of mortgages would fall into negative equity, and notes that this scenario applies a uniform 20 per cent decrease to current housing values, assuming all else remains the same, and does not consider the broader macroeconomic implications of declines in housing prices (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says negative equity is insufficient to trigger default if borrowers remain able to service their loans, which it says remains the case for the vast majority of these households (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). In a very adverse downturn scenario – which the RBA describes as, for example, a shock that may originate from overseas, where the unemployment rate increases to 6.3 per cent, inflation increases to 7 per cent, and the cash rate rises to 5.6 per cent – the RBA estimates the share of mortgagors at a higher risk of defaulting on their loans would increase to around 5 per cent, only a little higher than the peak in 2023 (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). In this scenario, the RBA estimates around two-thirds of these borrowers have insufficient income to cover their expenses but have enough buffers to service their debts and essential expenses for at least six months, and that even if housing prices decline by a further 20 per cent, few households are in negative equity (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). ## What does the RBA say about investors and lending standards? The RBA says investor credit growth picked up strongly over 2025 but has slowed recently and is expected to moderate further in the period ahead in response to tax changes, tighter monetary policy settings and softer housing prices (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). The RBA says that in periods of declining housing prices, investors may be less willing to enter the market and more inclined to sell properties to limit losses, which can amplify price declines and contribute to a more pronounced downturn than would otherwise occur; however, it says that, like other borrowers, most investors have considerable equity positions in their properties and have historically exhibited lower rates of arrears and default than owner-occupiers (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). In its October 2026 Review, the RBA says that, in the context of the current environment and outlook, it supported APRA's recent position to keep macroprudential policy settings unchanged, and that APRA's serviceability buffer, which requires lenders to assess a prospective borrower's ability to service their mortgage at an interest rate 3 percentage points above their current loan rate, also plays an important role in ensuring that new borrowers across the system are well placed to withstand shocks to their incomes, expenses or repayments (RBA Financial Stability Review 1 Oct 2026). ## What to watch next The ABS is scheduled to release the Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026 on 28 October 2026 at 11:30am AEDT (ABS, accessed 16 Oct 2026). The RBA Monetary Policy Board is scheduled to meet on 2–3 November 2026 (RBA board meeting schedule, accessed 16 Oct 2026). ## Sources 1. Cotality — Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September (1 Oct 2026) — https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/australian-housing-values-down-for-sixth-straight-month-in-september 2. Cotality — Home Value Index October 2026: Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September (1 Oct 2026) — https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/COTALITY%20HVI%20OCT%202026%20FINAL.pdf 3. RBA — Release of Financial Stability Review – October 2026 (1 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-28.html 4. RBA — Financial Stability Review – October 2026, 2. Resilience of Australian Households and Businesses (1 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/fsr/2026/oct/resilience-of-australian-households-and-businesses.html 5. RBA — Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html 6. RBA — Cash Rate Target (accessed 16 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ 7. RBA — Board Meeting Schedules (accessed 16 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html 8. ABS — Consumer Price Index, Australia (accessed 16 Oct 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia ## Disclaimer Property is not a financial product. No guarantees are made regarding future performance or returns. This is general information only and does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs — seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice. Eligibility & T&Cs apply. --- # Australia's Data Centre Boom: Jobs, Investment and Electricity Use URL: https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog/australia-ai-data-centre-boom-jobs-gdp Author: Investing Platform Published: 2026-10-08 In August 2026, around 1% of Australian job postings mentioned data centres, around twice as high as two years earlier, according to Indeed Hiring Lab (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab wrote that the growing use of AI services has greatly increased demand for new and larger data centre capacity (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Commonwealth Bank estimates the data centre build-out could total around $150 billion by 2030 (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). Oxford Economics Input-Output modelling suggests data centre construction spending could contribute $65 billion to GDP and support over 350,000 job-years over FY26-FY30 (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Under AEMO's Step Change scenario, data centre consumption in the National Electricity Market (NEM) is forecast to reach around 34 TWh or 13% of forecast operational consumption by FY36 (AEMO 2026). ## What is happening to data centre job postings and searches? In August 2026, around 1% of Australian job postings mentioned data centres, after peaking at 1.2% a few months earlier, and around twice as high as two years earlier, according to Indeed Hiring Lab (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab identified postings by the terms "data centre," "datacentre," or "data-centre" in a job title or description, and searches on Indeed in Australia by terms such as these (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). In August 2026, search activity on Indeed for data centre jobs was around 160% higher than in December 2025 and 136% above the 2023 average (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). ## Where are the projects and the hiring concentrated? Indeed Hiring Lab reported 167 data centre projects already operating in Australia, based on Renew Map data (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). New South Wales had 48 data centres operating, compared with 38 in Victoria, 25 in Queensland and 15 in the ACT, according to Renew Map data cited by Indeed Hiring Lab (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab said job postings are concentrated on Australia's east coast, particularly in New South Wales and Victoria (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Overall, 48% of data centre posting volume came from New South Wales, 28% from Victoria and 11% from Queensland, according to Indeed Hiring Lab (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Around 1.3% of New South Wales job postings and 1.2% of Victorian job postings mentioned data centres (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab wrote that Canberra punches above its weight, with data centres mentioned in 1.6% of job postings in the three months to August 2026 (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). CommBank, working from public announcements, estimates Australia has around six gigawatts - or 6,000 megawatts - of potential data centre capacity in its pipeline, with around half of the proposed capacity in New South Wales and about a quarter in Victoria (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). CommBank said that pipeline is roughly four times the operational capacity recorded at the end of 2025 (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). CommBank said Australia has 162 operational data centres and that only three of them currently have capacity above 100 megawatts (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). ## What jobs are being posted beyond tech roles? In the 2025-26 financial year, 14.7% of data centre job postings were in IT infrastructure, operations & support, with a further 12.6% in software development, according to Indeed Hiring Lab (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Around 14% of data centre job postings were for management, ahead of 8.9% in installation & maintenance, 8.7% in electrical engineering and 7.1% in industrial engineering (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). ## What do CommBank and Oxford Economics say about investment and GDP? CommBank estimates the build-out could total around $150 billion by 2030 and become the dominant driver of business investment growth over the next few years (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). CommBank economist Lucinda Jerogin said: "Our central estimate is for a total nominal build of around $150 billion by 2030" (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). CommBank said that if the entire six-gigawatt pipeline were completed and fully fitted out, industry cost benchmarks suggest the total value could reach around $220 billion (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). CommBank reported that private capital expenditure in the information, media and telecommunications industry rose by almost 90 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, reaching almost three times its level a year earlier (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). CommBank estimates data centres will add around six percentage points to real business investment growth in 2026 and around five percentage points in 2027, and that data centre investment will contribute around 0.2 percentage points to real GDP growth in both 2026 and 2027 (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). Jerogin said: "The business investment pulse is quite large, but that flow through to GDP is far smaller" (CommBank 6 Aug 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab reported that investment in equipment, plant & machinery across the information media & communications industry, which Indeed Hiring Lab describes as a rough proxy for the tech sector, has increased to 0.4% of annual nominal GDP, around 2.5 times higher than a year earlier (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). Oxford Economics forecasts data-centre investment in Australia will jump from under $10 billion per annum in 2025 to over $60 billion by 2030 (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Oxford Economics Input-Output modelling suggests data centre construction spending could contribute $65 billion to GDP and support over 350,000 job-years over FY26-FY30 (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Oxford Economics said Input-Output modelling measures the activity supported by expenditure and does not estimate the net economic benefit or the wider productivity gains enabled by the infrastructure (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). ## How much of the spend stays onshore? Oxford Economics said that of the $224 billion in cumulative capex over FY26–FY30, only $78.2 billion (about 35%) is retained onshore, and the other $146 billion leaks offshore (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Including opex, about 38% of the $242 billion total spend stays in Australia, according to Oxford Economics, which does not state a period for that total (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Oxford Economics said IT hardware (chips, servers, storage) is about half of the investment pipeline by 2030, and only 5-15% of it is expenditure in the Australian economy with the remainder imported (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Oxford Economics said power and cooling fit-out is also import-heavy, at 25-45% Australian, while the shell (70-80%) and site infrastructure (60-80%) are largely local (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Oxford Economics' modelling suggests suppliers account for around 59% of the GDP contribution from capital expenditure, $38.7 billion of the $65.7 billion total, and around 65% of the 353,000 job-years supported over FY26–FY30 (Oxford Economics 6 Oct 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab said the net contribution of the investment to the Australian economy may be smaller because an estimated two-thirds of the investment reflects imports, meaning that money flows outside Australia (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). ## What does AEMO say about electricity use? AEMO said around 165 data centres consumed approximately 5 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in financial year (FY) 2026, equivalent to around 3% of total NEM operational electricity consumption (AEMO 2026). Under AEMO's Step Change scenario, data centre consumption is forecast to triple to around 15 TWh or 7.8% of forecast operational consumption by FY30 and grow nearly seven times to around 34 TWh or 13% of forecast operational consumption by FY36 (AEMO 2026). AEMO listed 225 data centre projects in development, with a combined 67 GW capacity (AEMO 2026). Indeed Hiring Lab wrote that data centres already consume around 3% of the electricity supplied to the grid, and that the Australian Energy Market Operator expects that share to reach 13% in a decade, almost matching the energy currently used by all homes in New South Wales and Victoria (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). ## What does the Indeed Hiring Lab report conclude? Callam Pickering, the author of the Indeed Hiring Lab report, wrote that Australia is at the beginning of its largest investment boom since the 2000s, and that data centre investment is forecast at around $150 billion over the remainder of the decade, contributing noticeably to real GDP growth, although the net economic impact is muted somewhat by the need to import equipment and materials (Indeed Hiring Lab 17 Sep 2026). ## Sources 1. Indeed Hiring Lab — Data Centres: The Jobs Boom Behind the AI Boom (17 Sep 2026) — https://hiringlab.indeed.com/au/blog/2026/09/17/data-centres-the-jobs-boom-behind-the-ai-boom/ 2. Oxford Economics — Australia’s data centre boom: three lessons for capturing economic value (6 Oct 2026) — https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/resource/australias-data-centre-boom-three-lessons-for-capturing-economic-value/ 3. Commonwealth Bank — Australia’s data centre boom: a $150 billion investment opportunity (6 Aug 2026) — https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/08/australias-data-centre-boom.html 4. AEMO (2026 ESOO explainer) — Forecasting growing data centre demand (2026) — https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/nem/planning_and_forecasting/nem_esoo/2026/2026-esoo-data-centre-forecasting-overview.pdf ## Disclaimer Investing Platform is an aggregator service only. We do not hold client funds, securities, or investments. We do not provide personal financial advice. No guarantees are made regarding future performance or returns. This is general information only and does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs — seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice. Eligibility & T&Cs apply. --- # RBA lifts the cash rate to its highest since late 2011, and August inflation rises: what to watch next URL: https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog/rba-hikes-cash-rate-to-4-60 Author: Investing Platform Published: 2026-10-01 The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026. The 29 September 2026 decision was the fourth hike of 2026 (RBA 29 Sep 2026; ABC News 29 Sep 2026) and took the cash rate to its highest level since late 2011 (RBA cash rate table; ABC News 29 Sep 2026). On 30 September 2026, the ABS reported that headline inflation rose to 4.0% in the 12 months to August 2026 (ABS 30 Sep 2026). ## What did the RBA decide? At its meeting on 29 September 2026, the Monetary Policy Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60% (RBA 29 Sep 2026). The new 4.60% target took effect on 30 September 2026 (RBA cash rate table). The RBA said the decision was unanimous, and ABC News reported that all nine members of the board voted in favour (RBA 29 Sep 2026; ABC News 29 Sep 2026). The 29 September decision was the fourth increase of 2026. The RBA's cash rate table shows the target started the year at 3.60% and rose by 25 basis points at each increase, taking effect on 4 February, 18 March, 6 May and 30 September: a total of 100 basis points (RBA cash rate table). The last time the target was higher than 4.60% was in 2011, when it stood at 4.75% until a cut that took effect on 2 November 2011 (RBA cash rate table). The Board's statement said: "The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed" (RBA 29 Sep 2026). ## Why did the RBA hike again? The Board's statement said: "Inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks flagged in August are materialising" (RBA 29 Sep 2026). Among the reasons the Board gave (RBA 29 Sep 2026): - Energy: the conflict in the Middle East has broadened, and global energy prices are now much higher than had been assumed in the August forecasts. - Technology goods: AI-related demand is driving rapid growth in global prices for technology-related goods. - Domestic capacity: there remains pressure on domestic capacity. - Business pricing: liaison indicates that firms are experiencing cost pressures and are either increasing the prices of their goods and services or looking to do so. - Inflation expectations: short-term measures of inflation expectations remain elevated. - Inflation outcomes: recent inflation outcomes in Australia were stronger than expected at the previous meeting. The 29 September statement also noted that housing prices have fallen in most capital cities and that new housing loans have declined noticeably. The Board still judged that inflation is too high and that "a further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target in a reasonable period" (RBA 29 Sep 2026). EY Oceania chief economist Cherelle Murphy told the ABC: "It's certainly going to hurt many households, this fourth interest rate hike. But from the Reserve Bank's point of view, certainly what they see is hurting more is inflation continuing to be too high" (ABC News 29 Sep 2026). Commonwealth Bank head of Australian economics Belinda Allen said: "Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and saving more attractive." She added: "That tends to slow household spending and business investment, reducing some of the demand pressures in the economy and, over time, helping bring inflation back towards the RBA's 2–3 per cent target" (ABC explainer 29 Sep 2026). ## What did the August CPI show? The ABS released the Consumer Price Index for August 2026 on 30 September 2026 at 11:30am AEST (ABS 30 Sep 2026). In the 12 months to August 2026 (ABS 30 Sep 2026): - Headline CPI rose 4.0%, up from 3.5% in the 12 months to July 2026. - Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6%, unchanged from July. - Housing rose 5.7%, with rents up 3.6% and new dwelling prices up 5.4%. - Transport rose 5.6%. Automotive fuel prices rose 14.8% in the month of August alone, which the ABS put down to higher world oil prices and the unwinding of the remainder of the federal government's fuel excise relief. - Electricity rose 13.2%, largely due to the ending of Commonwealth electricity rebates. In August, automotive fuel and electricity were both excluded from the trimmed mean and were the key drivers of the difference between headline and trimmed mean inflation (ABS media release 30 Sep 2026). Capital Economics senior APAC economist Abhijit Surya said measures of core inflation didn't strengthen further in August, supporting Capital Economics' view that the RBA's tightening cycle is likely at an end (ABC live blog 30 Sep 2026). Headline CPI at 4.0% and the trimmed mean at 3.6% were both above the RBA's 2–3% inflation target in the 12 months to August 2026 (ABS 30 Sep 2026; RBA). ## What about the labour market? The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in August 2026 (ABS 24 Sep 2026). The Sydney Morning Herald noted that August's 4.6% unemployment rate was the highest in nearly five years (SMH 29 Sep 2026). The RBA's statement described labour market conditions as having "eased broadly as expected in recent months", with leading indicators "broadly stable" (RBA 29 Sep 2026). ## What does it mean for mortgages and borrowing capacity? Repayments. Canstar figures published by the ABC on 28 September 2026, before the decision, estimated that a 25 basis point September hike, if passed on in full by banks, would add $91 a month to repayments on a $600,000 loan, and that the four 2026 hikes would add $364 a month on the same loan (ABC 28 Sep 2026, citing Canstar). Banks passing it on. Macquarie said on 29 September that it will increase its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% p.a. from 15 October 2026 (Macquarie 29 Sep 2026). On 30 September, all four big banks (CBA, NAB, Westpac and ANZ) confirmed they will pass the hike on in full, lifting variable home loan rates by 0.25% p.a. from 9 October 2026 (ABC live blog 30 Sep 2026). Borrowing capacity. Cotality estimates that, for a household on the median income, the four rate hikes since February have reduced borrowing capacity by almost $90,000, equivalent to about 9% (Cotality 29 Sep 2026). Canstar estimated, before the decision, that the four 2026 hikes would cut the borrowing capacity of someone on the average full-time wage of $108,650 by more than $47,000 since the start of 2026, and that of a couple both on average wages by nearly $95,000 (Canstar 28 Sep 2026; ABC explainer 29 Sep 2026). ## What's happening to house prices and rents? Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 1.1% in September 2026, the sixth straight month of falling values, leaving national dwelling values 5.2% below their record high from March 2026 (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Sydney and Melbourne dwelling values were down 7.0% and 6.2% respectively over the 12 months to 30 September 2026 (Cotality 1 Oct 2026). Cotality reported that the national rental vacancy rate reached 2.0% in September 2026, up from a record low of 1.5% in February 2026 and still well below the pre-COVID decade average of 3.3%. The monthly pace of rental growth eased to 0.3% in seasonally adjusted terms, taking the annual change in national rents to 5.5% (Cotality Home Value Index, 1 Oct 2026). The ABS reported rents up 3.6% in the 12 months to August 2026 (ABS 30 Sep 2026). ## How are banks and economists reading November? NAB's forecasts have the cash rate peaking at 4.6% (NAB 30 Sep 2026). CBA economist Trent Saunders said: "For now, we continue to expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged in November. However, the decision remains finely balanced" (ABC live blog 30 Sep 2026). Before the decision, the majority of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expected the RBA to be done with hikes for the rest of the year (ABC 28 Sep 2026; ABC explainer 29 Sep 2026). ANZ, HSBC and UBS expect a further rise in November (ABC explainer 29 Sep 2026). ANZ head of Australian economics Adam Boyton said the unanimous decision and the hawkish tone of the post-meeting statement reinforced ANZ's forecast of a further hike (Broker Daily 30 Sep 2026). On 30 September 2026, Westpac changed its forecast to a November hike: chief economist Luci Ellis said a November hike is now the base case, "absent a lasting resolution of the Middle East conflict beforehand, or some other event that significantly lowers the outlook for energy-related costs in Australia" (Westpac IQ 30 Sep 2026). Betashares chief economist David Bassanese said: "it's now my base case that the RBA is now a short-priced favourite to raise rates by 25 basis points on Melbourne Cup Day, taking the cash rate to 4.85 per cent" (ABC News 29 Sep 2026). The ABS releases the Consumer Price Index for September 2026, which includes the September-quarter figures, on 28 October 2026, the last CPI release before the Board's 3 November 2026 decision (ABS 30 Sep 2026; ABS release calendar). ## What to watch next Dates and times are from the RBA calendar, the ABS release calendar, Macquarie's announcement and the ABC's report of the big four banks' announcements. - 9 October 2026: the big four banks' variable home loan rate increases take effect (ABC live blog 30 Sep 2026). - 13 October 2026, 11:30am AEDT: minutes of the September 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting (RBA Coming Up). - 15 October 2026: Macquarie's variable home loan reference rate increase takes effect (Macquarie 29 Sep 2026). - 15 October 2026, 11:30am AEDT: ABS Labour Force, September 2026 (ABS release calendar). - 28 October 2026, 11:30am AEDT: ABS Consumer Price Index, September 2026, including the September-quarter figures (ABS release calendar). - 3 November 2026, 2:30pm AEDT: next RBA cash rate decision, followed by the Governor's media conference at 3:30pm AEDT (RBA Coming Up). ## Sources 1. Reserve Bank of Australia (media release 2026-27) — Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html 2. Reserve Bank of Australia — Cash Rate Target (accessed 1 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ 3. Reserve Bank of Australia — Coming Up (accessed 1 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/coming-up/ 4. Reserve Bank of Australia — About Monetary Policy (accessed 1 Oct 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/about.html 5. Australian Bureau of Statistics — Consumer Price Index, Australia, August 2026 (30 Sep 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/aug-2026 6. Australian Bureau of Statistics (media release) — CPI rose 4.0% in the year to August 2026 (30 Sep 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-40-year-august-2026 7. Australian Bureau of Statistics (media release) — Unemployment rate rises to 4.6% in August (24 Sep 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/unemployment-rate-rises-46-august 8. Australian Bureau of Statistics — Future release - October 2026 — https://www.abs.gov.au/release-calendar/future-releases/202610 9. ABC News — RBA lifts interest rates to highest level in 15 years (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-29/rba-lifts-rates-highest-level-in-15-years-september-2026/107206640 10. ABC explainer — What an interest rate hike means for your mortgage, savings account and the Australian dollar (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-29/what-the-rba-cash-rate-hike-means-for-mortgages-rents-savings/107203364 11. ABC News — Interest rates likely to rise tomorrow, but is a second sting coming before Christmas? (28 Sep 2026) — https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-28/interest-preview-ahead-of-sept-29-meeting/107196596 12. ABC live blog — ASX jumps as traders cut bets on November rate rise as big banks pass on RBA decision — as it happened (30 Sep 2026) — https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-30/asx-markets-business-live-news/107210136 13. The Sydney Morning Herald — RBA governor warns there could be further rate hikes, even if it tips Australia into recession (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rba-hikes-interest-rates-to-4-6-per-cent-in-15-year-high-20260929-p6119t.html 14. Cotality — RBA rate hike deepens housing market headwinds as borrowing power shrinks (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/rba-rate-hike-deepens-housing-market-headwinds-as-borrowing-power-shrinks 15. Cotality — Australian housing values down for sixth straight month in September (1 Oct 2026) — https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/australian-housing-values-down-for-sixth-straight-month-in-september 16. Cotality — Home Value Index, index results as at 30 September 2026 (1 Oct 2026) — https://discover.cotality.com/hubfs/Article-Reports/COTALITY%20HVI%20OCT%202026%20FINAL.pdf 17. Broker Daily — Four 2026 rate hikes deal $90k blow to borrowing capacity (30 Sep 2026) — https://www.brokerdaily.au/economy/22073-four-2026-rate-hikes-deal-90k-blow-to-borrowing-capacity 18. Canstar — Home buyers in for another budget cut: what a Tuesday hike might mean for property (28 Sep 2026) — https://www.canstar.com.au/news/what-tuesday-hike-might-mean-for-property/ 19. Macquarie — Macquarie Bank's response to the RBA's interest rate decision (29 Sep 2026) — https://www.macquarie.com/au/en/about/news/2026/macquarie-banks-response-to-the-rba-interest-rate-decision.html 20. NAB — NAB RBA Watch: RBA hikes by 25bps as expected (30 Sep 2026) — https://www.nab.com.au/news/economy-markets/nab-rba-watch--rba-hikes-by-25bps-as-expected 21. Westpac IQ — RBA hikes in September, November follow-up now expected (30 Sep 2026) — https://www.westpaciq.com.au/economics/2026/09/rba-decision-29-September-2026 ## Disclaimer Investing Platform is an aggregator service only. We do not hold client funds, securities, or investments. We do not provide personal financial advice. No guarantees are made regarding future performance or returns. This is general information only and does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs — seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice. Eligibility & T&Cs apply. --- # Big four banks tip an RBA cash-rate hike on 29 September URL: https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog/big-four-banks-tip-rba-hike Author: Investing Platform Published: 2026-09-23 All four big banks now expect the RBA to lift the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60% on Tuesday 29 September 2026, which would be the fourth hike this year (Canstar 21 Sep 2026; MPA 21 Sep 2026; RBA). Inflation is easing but still above target, the Governor says some upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising, and house prices have fallen for five straight months (ABS 26 Aug 2026; RBA 18 Sep 2026; Cotality 1 Sep 2026). ## What just changed? By Monday 21 September, all four had moved to September. NAB was already there. Westpac's chief economist Luci Ellis brought Westpac's call forward to a September hike, announced on 21 September, and CBA and ANZ followed the same day (Westpac 21 Sep 2026; Canstar 21 Sep 2026; MPA 21 Sep 2026). So the consensus is a 25 basis point hike, taking the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday 29 September. That's what the bank economists think. It's not what the RBA has said it will do. ## How did we get to 4.35%? Quick recap of the year, from the RBA's cash rate table (dates are when each decision took effect, the day after it was announced): - 4 February: up 25bp to 3.85% - 18 March: up 25bp to 4.10% - 6 May: up 25bp to 4.35% - 17 June and 12 August: held at 4.35% Three hikes, two holds. A September move would make it four hikes in 2026 (MPA 21 Sep 2026). CBA's Head of Australian Economics, Belinda Allen, says a move to 4.60% "will see those with a mortgage facing a higher mortgage rate than seen since 2011", with the cash rate "25bp above the peak seen ahead of the 2025 cutting cycle" (MPA 21 Sep 2026). ## Do the banks agree on what happens after September? Not quite. This is where it gets interesting. ANZ economists Adam Boyton and Jack Chambers have a second hike in November, taking the rate to 4.85%. That would be the highest since 2008 (MPA 21 Sep 2026; Broker Daily 22 Sep 2026). ANZ is the only major bank to officially put a second hike in its forecast. Westpac and NAB say there's a risk of another hike in November but haven't added it to their official forecasts (Canstar 21 Sep 2026). CBA's Allen says that "at 4.6% monetary policy is restrictive" (MPA 21 Sep 2026). Same data, different reads on how much is enough. That's normal. Economists forecast; they don't know. ## What did the RBA actually say? Governor Michele Bullock appeared before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics on 18 September. The line that got the most attention, from her opening statement: "although growth in the Australian economy is slowing, some of these upside risks to inflation appear to be materialising" (RBA 18 Sep 2026). Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser offered a personal view that Australian rates are now closer to sensible long-term global real rates. He also raised a question: have borrowers adjusted? (ABC News 18 Sep 2026). Neither of those is a promise to hike. But together they read as a central bank that isn't relaxed about inflation. ## What are markets pricing? Two different sources, two slightly different numbers. Worth keeping them separate. LSEG pricing on 18 September had roughly a 95% chance of a September hike and about 37% for a further move in November (ABC News 18 Sep 2026). ASX pricing reported on 22 September put the chance of a move to 4.60% at around 82% (Broker Daily 22 Sep 2026). Both point the same way. The gap between them is a reminder that these figures shift daily and depend on how each provider calculates them. ## Why is inflation the sticking point? The ABS monthly CPI, released 26 August 2026, showed headline inflation at 3.5% in the year to July, down from 3.8% in June. The trimmed mean, which strips out the most extreme price moves and is a measure of underlying inflation the RBA watches closely, was 3.6% (ABS 26 Aug 2026). That's heading in the right direction. But the RBA targets 2 to 3 per cent, and 3.6% underlying isn't there yet. Where's the pressure coming from? Housing was up 5.0% over the year, with new dwelling prices up 5.7%, rents up 3.6% and electricity up 6.1%. Food and non-alcoholic beverages rose 3.2% (ABS, Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026). One thing worth clarifying: the CPI excludes mortgage interest charges (ABS FAQ on measuring housing in the CPI). So the 5.0% Housing figure isn't measuring what borrowers pay the bank. The main contributors were new dwelling prices, rents and electricity. ## What's happening to house prices? Falling, and the falls are broadening. Cotality's Home Value Index dropped 0.9% nationally in August 2026, the fifth monthly decline in a row. Values are now 3.6% below the March peak, and 93% of capital-city suburbs recorded a fall in values over winter (Cotality 1 Sep 2026). At the parliamentary hearing, RBA Assistant Governor Brad Jones put the Sydney and Melbourne declines at around 5 to 6 per cent. Bullock added some perspective: prices are still roughly 50 per cent higher than they were in early 2020 (ABC News 18 Sep 2026). So it's a correction from a high base, not a collapse. Whether a fourth hike deepens it is one of the questions a lot of investors are asking. ## What does a 25bp hike mean for a mortgage? Canstar calculated on 21 September 2026 that a 0.25 percentage point hike in September would add $91 to the monthly repayments of a borrower who had a $600,000 loan at the start of the 2026 hikes, with 25 years remaining (Canstar 21 Sep 2026). That's illustrative only. Your actual change depends on your lender, your loan size, your remaining term and whether your bank passes the move on in full. It's a useful yardstick, not a bill. ## How should you think about it? We're not going to tell you what to do with your money. That's not our lane. What we'd say is this. Rate cycles are the backdrop for almost everything in Australian investing: bank margins, property valuations, bond yields, the Aussie dollar, consumer stocks. Understanding how the RBA reads inflation data, and how markets price the outcomes, is a core skill. The one point worth underlining: even at "95%", a hike isn't locked in. That's why the August jobs numbers, due on Thursday 24 September, matter. ## What to watch - Thursday 24 September 2026, 11:30am AEST: ABS Labour Force, August data (ABS release calendar) - Tuesday 29 September 2026, 2:30pm AEST: RBA cash rate decision; Governor's media conference 3:30pm (RBA) - Wednesday 30 September 2026, 11:30am AEST: ABS August CPI release (ABS release calendar) ## Sources 1. Reserve Bank of Australia — Cash Rate Target (22 Sep 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ 2. Reserve Bank of Australia — Opening Statement to the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Michele Bullock (18 Sep 2026) — https://www.rba.gov.au/speeches/2026/sp-gov-2026-09-18.html 3. Reserve Bank of Australia — 2026 Monetary Policy Board meeting dates — https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html 4. Reserve Bank of Australia — Media Conference, Monetary Policy Decision — https://www.rba.gov.au/monetary-policy/media-conferences/ 5. Australian Bureau of Statistics — CPI rose 3.5% in the year to July 2026 (26 Aug 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/cpi-rose-35-year-july-2026 6. Australian Bureau of Statistics — Consumer Price Index, Australia, July 2026 (26 Aug 2026) — https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/consumer-price-index-australia/latest-release 7. Australian Bureau of Statistics — FAQs about the measurement of housing in the CPI and Selected Living Cost Indexes — https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/frequently-asked-questions-faqs-about-measurement-housing-consumer-price-index-cpi-and-selected-living-cost-indexes-slcis 8. Australian Bureau of Statistics — Release calendar, September 2026 — https://www.abs.gov.au/release-calendar/future-releases/202609 9. Cotality — Housing downturn spreads as 93% of capital city suburbs record winter value falls (1 Sep 2026) — https://www.cotality.com/au/insights/articles/housing-downturn-spreads-as-93-of-capital-city-suburbs-record-winter-value-falls 10. Westpac — Westpac brings forward rate hike call to September (21 Sep 2026) — https://www.westpac.com.au/news/making-news/2026/09/westpac-brings-forward-rate-hike-call-to-september/ 11. Canstar — All four big banks expect RBA hike at next meeting (21 Sep 2026) — https://www.canstar.com.au/news/and-then-there-were-4-anz-now-expects-rba-hike-next-week/ 12. Mortgage Professional Australia — CBA, ANZ join Westpac, NAB in tipping RBA hike (21 Sep 2026) — https://www.mpamag.com/au/news/general/cba-anz-join-westpac-nab-in-tipping-rba-hike/590401 13. Broker Daily — Banks recast rate hike forecasts to be harder and faster (22 Sep 2026) — https://www.brokerdaily.au/economy/22039-banks-recast-rate-hike-forecasts-to-be-harder-and-faster 14. ABC News — RBA Governor talks interest rates at parliamentary hearing (18 Sep 2026) — https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-09-18/rba-governor-talks-interest-rates-at-parliamentary-hearing/107167676 ## Disclaimer Investing Platform is an aggregator service only. We do not hold client funds, securities, or investments. We do not provide personal financial advice. No guarantees are made regarding future performance or returns. This is general information only and does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs — seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice. Eligibility & T&Cs apply. --- # 2026 Federal Budget: negative gearing, capital gains tax and the new-build carve-out, explained URL: https://www.investingplatform.com.au/blog/2026-federal-budget-negative-gearing-new-builds-explained Author: Investing Platform Published: 2026-09-16 Every date and rule below is taken from the Australian Government's Budget 2026-27 papers or Australian Taxation Office guidance; any other source is named where it is used. Last reviewed 23 September 2026. In one paragraph: On 12 May 2026 the Australian Government announced that negative gearing on residential property will be limited to eligible new builds, and that the 50 per cent capital gains tax (CGT) discount will be replaced with cost base indexation and a minimum 30 per cent tax rate on gains, both from 1 July 2027. Established residential property bought after the announcement at 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 loses negative gearing from 1 July 2027. Property held at that time is exempt from the negative gearing changes. Investors in eligible new builds keep negative gearing and can choose between the 50 per cent discount and the new arrangements. The Australian Taxation Office describes the measures as now law (ATO; Budget 2026-27). ## What did the 2026-27 Federal Budget change for property investors? Three things, all announced on 12 May 2026 and set out in the Budget papers and on the ATO's new legislation page. 1. Negative gearing is limited to new builds. From 1 July 2027, losses on established residential investment property purchased from 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 can only be deducted against income from residential property, including capital gains. They can no longer be deducted against wages or other income. Unused losses can be carried forward to offset residential property income in future years (Budget 2026-27 negative gearing and CGT explainer). 2. The 50 per cent CGT discount is replaced. From 1 July 2027, the 50 per cent discount for individuals, trusts and partnerships is replaced with cost base indexation for inflation and a minimum tax rate of 30 per cent on gains. The Government describes the aim as restoring the taxation of real gains. The change applies only to gains that accrue after 1 July 2027 (Budget 2026-27; ATO). 3. Eligible new builds are carved out. Negative gearing continues for eligible new builds, and investors in new builds can choose the 50 per cent CGT discount or the new arrangements (Budget 2026-27). ## When do the changes start? - Cut-off: the announcement at 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 (ATO). - Negative gearing restriction on established property: 1 July 2027. Established property purchased between the announcement and 30 June 2027 may be negatively geared during that period, but not from 1 July 2027 (Budget 2026-27 explainer). - CGT changes: 1 July 2027, on gains accruing from that date (Budget 2026-27 explainer). ## Who is grandfathered? Properties held at the announcement, including where a contract had been entered into but not yet settled, can continue to be negatively geared in future years (Budget 2026-27 explainer). The ATO states that the impact of the changes on existing investments will be limited, and that the CGT reforms will only apply to gains that accrue after 1 July 2027 (ATO). For CGT, assets owned before 1 July 2027 and sold after that date are treated under current arrangements on the gains made before 1 July 2027 (Budget 2026-27 explainer). Other exclusions and exemptions in the Budget papers: properties in widely held trusts (for example, most managed investment trusts) and superannuation funds, including SMSFs, are excluded from the negative gearing changes; build-to-rent developments and private investors supporting government housing programs, for example through the provision of affordable housing, have targeted exemptions (Budget Paper No. 2, 2026-27; Budget 2026-27 explainer). Confirm the treatment of any structure with a tax adviser. ## What counts as a new build? This is the definition that decides which side of the line a property sits on, and it is narrower than the headline. From the Budget 2026-27 negative gearing and CGT explainer: - A new build includes a dwelling constructed on vacant land, and dwellings created where an existing property is demolished and replaced with a greater number of dwellings. - Knock-down rebuilds or substantial renovations that do not increase supply are not eligible. A granny flat built next to an established property is not eligible. - A new build cannot have been previously sold, unless it was first owned by the builder and not occupied for more than 12 months. Subsequent purchasers of the dwelling cannot access the 50 per cent CGT discount or negative gearing in relation to that property. - The Government notes this is similar to how stamp duty exemptions apply to new builds under some state-based arrangements. The practical effect: "new property" is now a tax category with edges. Two similar dwellings on the same street can sit on opposite sides of the line depending on whether the buyer is the first purchaser after the builder. ## What happens to the CGT discount for new-build investors? Investors who buy new builds can choose either the 50 per cent CGT discount or indexation and the minimum tax when they sell the property (Budget 2026-27 explainer). For other CGT assets held by individuals, partnerships and trusts for at least 12 months, the new arrangements apply to gains accruing from 1 July 2027. ## Does this apply to commercial property, shares or superannuation? The negative gearing changes apply only to residential property. Commercial property and other asset classes, such as shares, remain subject to the existing negative gearing arrangements. The CGT changes apply to all CGT assets, including property and shares, held by individuals, partnerships and trusts for at least 12 months (Budget 2026-27 explainer). Superannuation funds are excluded from the negative gearing changes (Budget 2026-27 explainer). Seek advice on your own circumstances. ## What are the risks the concession does not remove? The tax setting does not change the nature of buying property before it is built. Buyers of new builds still carry completion risk (the developer must finish), timing risk (settlement dates move, and finance approvals may not come through), and valuation risk at settlement (the lender values what was built, not what was drawn). Tax is also only one input into prices. After the Budget, the Commonwealth Bank's economics team lowered its dwelling price growth forecast for the year to December 2026 from 5 per cent to 3 per cent. CBA's Senior Economist Trent Saunders said the slowdown primarily reflects higher mortgage rates, and estimated the policy changes would subtract 0.6 percentage points from 2026 price growth (CBA, 13 May 2026). That is one bank's forecast, not a fact about the future. ## What does this mean for Investing Platform users? Investing Platform lists brand-new residential property across New South Wales and Victoria, open to all investors. The Budget has made the difference between brand-new and established property a matter of tax law. We do not provide personal advice and we do not recommend any property. What we can do is put the information about a new development in one place, with the sources behind it. ## Frequently asked questions Is negative gearing being abolished? No. It is being limited. From 1 July 2027 it is not available against other income for established residential property bought from 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026. It remains available for eligible new builds and for property held at the announcement (Budget 2026-27; ATO). What about an established investment property bought in June 2026? Under the Budget explainer, it may be negatively geared until 30 June 2027. From 1 July 2027, losses on it can only be deducted against residential property income, including capital gains, and any excess carried forward. What if a contract was signed before 7:30pm AEST on 12 May 2026 but settled after? The Budget explainer states that properties held at the announcement include those where a contract had been entered into but not yet settled. Confirm with a tax adviser. Is a new build bought from a previous owner still a new build for tax? Generally no. A new build cannot have been previously sold, unless it was first owned by the builder and not occupied for more than 12 months. Subsequent purchasers cannot access the 50 per cent CGT discount or negative gearing on it (Budget 2026-27 explainer). Do new-build investors lose the 50 per cent CGT discount? No. They can choose between the 50 per cent discount and indexation with the minimum tax (Budget 2026-27). Is this law yet? The ATO's new legislation page describes the measures as now law. Always check the ATO page for the current status. ## Sources 1. Australian Taxation Office — Tax reform: boosting home ownership, reforming negative gearing and capital gains tax — https://www.ato.gov.au/about-ato/new-legislation/in-detail/individuals/tax-reform-boosting-home-ownership-reforming-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax 2. Australian Government, Budget 2026-27 — Tax reform — https://budget.gov.au/content/04-tax-reform.htm 3. Australian Government, Budget 2026-27 — Tax explainer: Negative Gearing and Capital Gains Tax Reform — https://budget.gov.au/content/factsheets/download/tax-explainers-negative-gearing-capital-gains-tax.pdf 4. Australian Government, Budget Paper No. 2: Budget Measures 2026-27 — https://budget.gov.au/content/bp2/download/bp2_2026-27.pdf 5. Commonwealth Bank of Australia — 2026 Budget: updated housing outlook (13 May 2026) — https://www.commbank.com.au/articles/newsroom/2026/05/2026-budget-updated-housing-outlook.html ## Disclaimer Investing Platform is an aggregator service only. We do not hold client funds, securities, or investments. We do not provide personal financial advice. No guarantees are made regarding future performance or returns. This is general information only and does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs — seek independent financial, legal and taxation advice. Eligibility & T&Cs apply.